Filed under: Industry, Comfort Zone Investing, Headline news, Housing

Ted Allrich is the founder of The On the web Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he’ll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Things are different now. Gas is more costly, way more expensive. You used to fill a automobile for $20 (way back in the ’60’s it was $5). Now it easily costs $80 and is going higher. What does this one thing advocate will happen, not only in the U.S. but globally? The ramifications are massive. Some companies will benefit. Others will be crunched under the wheels of evolution as the inevitable occurs.

First, let’s go to extremes. Say gas costs $10 a gallon. It’s already close to $5 here in California. Give it a few more weeks, especially around the 4th of July. It’ll break $5 and keep going. Some people have already started to adapt to the new reality. They’re buying vehicles that get superior gas mileage, dumping SUVs or large vehicles that slurp gas like it’s a buck a gallon. So the first group of companies to benefit will be the ones making the most fuel efficient vehicles. That started happening about a year ago as Toyota couldn’t make enough Priuses to keep up with demand. Now GM and Ford are trying to move as fast as possible to get out electric cars and/or hybrids. Do they have enough capital to make the transition?

Then there are the trucking companies, hauling trailers full of goodies around the country. They’re paying higher and higher gas bills, passing them on to customers. But customers are looking at alternatives. Like the railroads which are more efficient for long hauls. Anticipate railroads to continue their upward climb in profits as well as truck carriers specializing in shorter hauls. The long haul truckers will have a tougher time.

Home remodeling will be massive. More people will stay home instead of traveling when vacations roll around. Tourist destinations that are distant will have a hard time attracting customers. Massive box home retailers like Lowe’s and Home Depot should see an uptick in business. This sector gets a double benefit from current economic straits: with real estate prices depressed, fewer people move so they stay home and fix up what they have.

Now to real estate. More people will be moving into cities, closer to work. Prices for condos and city homes will rise in the massive metropolises, fall in the suburbs as commuters wear out soles instead of tires. Who gets injured? Homebuilders with huge tracts of land. Who gets helped? Constructions companies focused on urban properties. Apartments become more popular. Apartment Real Estate Investment Trusts specializing in urban living will do well.

Utilities will see an increase in usage as people stay home. Electric and water companies will see strains, especially over the summer months. Look for some rationing and higher prices as demand goes higher. Utility companies with entrepreneurial management and national presence will do very well.

Coal will play a more important role in the economy since it’s a cheaper fuel source. Coal burning utility companies will have a competitive edge, nuclear ones even more so. Companies with huge reserves of coal in the ground will do best of all.

Alternative fuel sources will get more funding but not ethanol, a fuel that costs more to deliver than gas from oil. Plus it requires large amounts of edible products such as corn to make, exacerbating food shortages. Companies in the forefront of clean, efficient energy, that have enough capital to survive, will eventually be winners. Oil companies will continue to make exceptional profits as each barrel extracted has many buyers for it, from India to China to Brazil, and the U.S.

Congress is trying to devise extra taxes for the oil companies, a short sighted approach to the energy problem. Each penny Congress takes is one less spent on exploration for more oil and/or less money for research and development into alternative fuels. Republicans are fighting hard against this one and hopefully will prevail. Whatever happens, oil companies will continue to make unusually strong profits for quite some time.

Will all of this happen? Not all of it, but you can be sure some of it will, especially if gas prices get to $10 a gallon. Make sure your portfolio reflects some of this inevitability.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, June 14th, 2008 at 4:25 pm and is filed under Industry News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.