Filed under: Forecasts, Good news, Industry, Housing, Federal Reserve, Recession
I’ve been very wary of market conditions over the last six months. I’ve taken the bear position for superior than a year now. Today however, I am seeing a convergence of conditions and circumstances that lead me to question whether the gates have again been thrown open for the bulls. Make no mistake about my position on the economy from a consumer standpoint. It’s real ugly out there and I’m not too happy about that. However, I’ve seen it worse in my time and for now, we still live in a world where good hard work and some personal responsibility can accomplish a lot for a person.
There are lots of things that I now find promising for the investment world. First, the answer to the question of the Democratic presidential nominee is all but cemented. That’s one huge monkey off the nation’s back. Second, the Federal Reserve has subtly come out in favor of protecting the dollar. I do comprehend more now about why the Reserve Board took the path that it did, but I still think that interest rates need to come back up a tiny. Third, our nation has shown that it can indeed reduce it’s driving habit in short order. Fourth, manufacturing numbers haven’t declined as swiftly or as deeply as I expected. Finally, I think the downward slide of real estate values is slowing and shall soon stabilize, but there are still a lot of mortgage notes yet to crumble.
I know that the stock markets and the overall economy are inextricably connected, I also know that they are two very distinct worlds. That’s why I feel that the markets could surge while things at the consumer level still look very grim.
If the price of crude oil can be reduced and stabilized, if we can reverse the downward trend in employment, and if this country’s citizens can repay their debts rather than defaulting on them, I see a bull market on the horizon. What do you think? Should we aim the DJIA upward again?
Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger. He spent most of his economic stimulus check on a much needed new refrigerator.
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