Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Dell (DELL), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Market matters, Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Research in Motion (RIMM), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), salesforce.com inc (CRM), Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell, Cramer on BloggingStocks

TheStreet.com’s Jim Cramer says observers demand perfection, but the arrows slung at diverse thinking offer lessons in making money.

The level of perfection people demand, the level of performance they say they demand, the insistence on making money in any particular way, these are all part of what it is like to be, well, me.

One of the ideal calls I’ve ever had was with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer’s Take). It was a happenstance call, as so many really are but pros won’t admit that because well, then why pay them? My daughter wanted a second iPod because she had a pink one and needed a blue one. It was that “fashion statement” wakeup call that told me the numbers for iPods in the analysts’ reports were way too low.

I pushed the stock hard everywhere. When I got my own show on CNBC, I endlessly lauded Apple in the $70s, $80s and $90s, and made a major statement when I included it in my Four Horsemen of Tech.

At the end of the year I took it off the list, as I did with all the Horsemen except Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer’s Take). The $198 price reeked of greed.

I got back on the stock when it hit the $120s. Again, happenstance. This time the iChat camera in my daughter’s room after she insisted I get rid of the Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) (Cramer’s Take) and go for the Mac. When word came down that the new iPhone would possibly include iChat, I went out and said, when it was in the $150s, that I didn’t care about price, I just cared about the time frame of the launch of the new iPhone and I would sell it into the launch. Some right before, some during and some after, and maybe to leave a quarter on, maybe not. I said last night to sell the last quarter the day after, but it might be worth keeping. I hadn’t made up my mind yet.

Why go over this litany? Because yesterday I was accosted by some fellow who was in disbelief that I suggested selling the stock. He wanted to know why I didn’t just say buy and hold, because here it is back where I told people to sell it last December — if they’d done nothing, they would have done well.

I had just completed my show, and frankly I wasn’t in the mood to debate it. But the guy was insistent that I hadn’t done the right thing.

I told him, OK, on at $70, off at $190; on at $120, back to $185. How in heck could you be better than that?

He insisted that all I did was trade it. That trading was really unnecessary. I went through the arithmetic. With my suggestions you picked up 120, (190 minus 70 basis) and then an additional 65, so you got 185 points. With his method, he only got 115.

He recommended my method was riskier. I said that the riskiest thing to do was to ride $190 back to $120 and give up more than half your gain. He said it didn’t turn out that way. Buy and hold “kept you in.”

Finally, I stated, forget Apple. If you can make 185, isn’t that superior than 115?

He said, “They are both good.”

I gave up.

This can be an impossible business.

Most stocks, the vast majority, have stunk for several years now. Stocks have stunk as an investment unless you nailed the sector, and the sectors have been agriculture, infrastructure, minerals, defense and oil and gas, and Apple, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (Cramer’s Take), RIMM and Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) (Cramer’s Take).

Some scattered takeovers. Otherwise, that’s it.

And even when you nail it, as I did with Apple, it isn’t enough.

This weekend a guy came up to me at a restaurant in Allenhurst, N.J. I was minding my own business, trying to eat. The guy told me that he’d all oils, that he had made millions of dollars, that he had Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (Cramer’s Take), Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer’s Take), Conoco (NYSE: COP) (Cramer’s Take), BP (NYSE: BP) (Cramer’s Take). I think he might have been implying that I helped him, but I’m not sure.

Anyway, I told him that he should sell some, that those gains could not be sustainable. I told him that I had sold my BP.

He told me I didn’t know what I was talking about. That these were up stocks.

Here’s my conclusion. I know what I am talking about. This is a really horrid, crummy market, where the gains are all hardscrabble and can be ephemeral. Taking them is the only sure thing. You don’t have to take all of them but you’ve to take some of them.

Oh, and here’s another take. In the end, nobody cares what anybody else says when they are winning. The Apple guy and the oil guy are winning. They’re geniuses. The rest of us are idiots.

Just like we were in March 2000. Maybe we were even more stupid because we liked them in February 2000 (much-reviled mind change when the Nasdaq moved up several thousand points in a couple of months.)

Last conclusion: I like being stupid and an idiot. It is why I’ve made a lot of money.

RELATED LINKS:
Cramer’s ‘Mad Money’ Recap: Wade In with Kaydon
Top Ten Most Searched Stocks on TheStreet.com

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com’s sites and serves as an adviser to the company’s CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long ConocoPhillips.

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Filed under: Deals, Industry, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Sony Corp ADR (SNE)

Anyone who did not think a Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) buyout of Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) has become less likely should have stopped by the All Things Digital conference. According to Reuters, “Yahoo Inc Chief Executive Jerry Yang said on Wednesday a potential deal with Microsoft has tremendous power, but the software giant appears no longer interested in a full merger.”

The leaves Yahoo! management, its board, and takeover artist Carl Icahn in a tough spot. Many analysts believe that without a deal, the Yahoo! shares could drop back near $20, where they traded before the offer from Redmond. Yahoo! currently changes hands at $27.

The news is a sign that Microsoft thinks it can do almost anything on its own, including challenging Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) in the search business. Gates, Ballmer & Co. have the money to get the engineering hands on board to push better search tech, but user loyalty to Google may be so great that even a much better product from Microsoft will not break its rival’s hold on the market.

Microsoft has had success exceeding the market’s expectations before. No one believed that the company’s Xbox could challenge the Sony (NYSE:SNE) PlayStation franchise.

But, search engines are not game consoles and the rules in one game do not necessarily apply in another.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

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Filed under: Deals

This report on the newly reopened speaks between Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), which surfaced late Monday, has Microsoft exploring the possibility of buying Yahoo!’s search business and taking a passive minority stake in the company. Part of the deal would include Yahoo! spinning off its Asian business.

Microsoft and Yahoo!, which earlier this month broke off acquisition speaks, confirmed on Monday that they were back at the table.

This time, they are speaking about a more limited alliance. However, neither company gave further details, although many industry analysts have speculated that they remain interested in an outright acquisition. but could do it on friendlier terms by moving slowly.

Continue reading at TechConfidential.com.

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Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Good news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis, Marvell Technology Group (MRVL)

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) shares are trading higher after the company posted a first-quarter profit of $69.9 million, or 11 cents per share. Excluding one-time items, MRVL earned 24 cents per share, well above analysts’ estimates of 13 cents per share. After earnings were announced, an analyst at Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to “Outperform” from “Perform.” If you think that the stock won’t fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MRVL.

After hitting a one-year high of $20.04 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $9.77 in January. MRVL opened this morning at $16.95. So far this day the stock has hit a low of $16.82 and a high of $17.47. As of 12:50, MRVL is trading at $17.35, up 3.27 (23.2%). The chart for MRVL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would think about a January bull-put credit spread below the $12.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn’t do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in eight months as long as MRVL is above $12.50 at January expiration. Marvell would have to fall by more than 27% before we would begin to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

MRVL has been below $12.50 as recently as April but has shown support around $14 over the past month. This trade could be risky if the slowing US economy puts a damper on the next two earnings reports from MRVL but even if that happens, that position could be protected by support the stock might find from its 50 day moving average, which is currently around $12.50 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MRVL.

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Filed under: Marketing and advertising

A piece in the USA Today reports that top retail chains have improved their supply chain management to get the hot new fashions in stores more quickly before.

Sounds great, right? Maybe not. According to the article. “With the tighter economy squeezing retailers industrywide, several companies have hit on a successful formula for propping up earnings: They’re speeding up the time it takes to get the latest fashions into their stores.”

Obviously increased efficiency is great and there’s nothing not to like about improved ordering, fewer markdowns, etc. But it could be creating a false sense of optimism if it’s allowing for the frontloading of sales. $30 million in sales in the first quarter and then $10 million in the second is the same as $20 million in each quarter: but if you don’t know about the differences in inventory situations, you could have a false sense of optimism at the end of the first quarter.

Time will tell whether better supply chain management is messing with the distribution of sales throughout the year.

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst reports, Deals, Industry, Consumer experience, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO)

There have been concerns that the rate at which people clicking on the text ads next to Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) search results has been falling. These concerns caused spirited debate before the company’s last earnings report and might have even pushed the firm’s stock price down. But earnings were excellent, and much of the fear went away.

Now it turns out the Google ads are doing superior and better, and clicks on ads at rivals are falling. The Wall Street Journal, using comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) data, reports that Google’s performance improved in April and “Paid clicks for Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Yahoo Inc (NASDAQ:YHOO) meanwhile declined during the month, according to the data.” The paper reports that Google’s performance in the U.S. was 20% ahead of expectations.

Good for Google, but very bad for its two chief rivals. The information indicates that even if Microsoft buys Yahoo!, the combined operation will have a much smaller market share in search than Google, and its advertising will perform worse. If Microsoft and Yahoo! stay separate, their uphill battles could face extremely long odds.

From all the data available, Google’s search technology brings back superior results for consumers. Its technology for matching ads to searches also appears to work much better. The fight for the domination of this critical portion of the internet is over. The only question is whether the second and third place firms can make money long-term.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

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Filed under: Consumer experience, Marketing and advertising, Gap Inc (GPS)

In a move designed to make it easier and more appealing for consumers to shop at its websites, Gap (NYSE: GPS) is consolidating operations to allow for the purchase of clothing from Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy and Piperlime using one shopping cart, paying one shipping fee.

The Wall Street Journal reports that “By integrating the sites, the San Francisco-based company hopes to encourage shoppers to purchase products from more than one of its brands. Gap states about a third of its online orders are put by customers who shopped at more than one of its Web sites in the past year.”

Since this seems like an obvious way to spur sales growth, you’ve to wonder what took so long. One concern might be that keeping the sites separate kept the brands more distinct in the eyes of the consumer. Will having expensive Banana Republic merchandise in the same shopping cart as the more budget-oriented Old Navy detract from the value of that brand? It’s possible. It may be why a more successful retailer like Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) has chosen to keep Hollister and its namesake brand entirely separate.

But with recent cost cuts aimed at improving profitability, Gap’s recently-anointed CEO Glenn Murphy appears focused on improving performance now rather than building brands. With its shares trading at about half of where they were a decade ago, shareholders are probably ready for that.

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Filed under: Management, Raising money, Engagements

We’ve been digging around for the the coming layoffs at private equity firms to get a good handle on just what the economic downturn and credit crunch will mean to all the B-School kids who wanted to be the next multi-millionaires and billionaires. While no hard numbers are out industry-wide yet (at least that you can hang your hat on), there are some things trickling out.

The Deal Journal, of the Wall Street Journal, noted in a post today that American Capital Strategies (NASDAQ: ACAS) plans to let go an unspecified number of staffers in middle markets. As you can see in the chart below, they have had their fair share of pain in the process.

Dan Primack, of Private Equity Hub, also wrote a piece noting that no one is getting hired in finance anymore, so he linked to an M&A article about “how to get fired.“

Our own Zac Bissonnette wrote here on BloggingBuyouts at the end of February about how M&A was down so much that dealmakers were set for big layoffs.

But here we are at the end of April and no major firings have come the way of dealmakers. Since they cannot all jump into “distressed mortgages and loans” and since they cannot all go to work for a SPAC immediately, it seems only a matter of time and that time is sooner rather than later.

The one thing you can bet on is that there won’t be press releases out of private equity firms. They are private for a reason, well most are still private. When the news does come out it’s probably safe to assume that the firms will say this is merely a reflection of the current conditions or something of the like. Just keep in mind that companies don’t fire waves or groups of workers if they think they will be needed in a few months time.

Who knows, maybe they will just announce worker furloughs through the end of summer.

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Filed under: Economic data, Housing, Recession

U.S. new home sales unexpectedly rose 3.2% (PDF) to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 526,000 in April 2008 — the first rise in new home sales in six months, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected April 2008 new home sales to register a 522,000 annualized rate.

Nevertheless, sales are still down about 42% in the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, inventories dipped to a 10.6-month supply in April 2008 at the current sales pace, compared to an 11-month supply in March 2008 and a 9.8-month supply in February 2008.

Also, the median sales price increased 9.1% in April 2008 to $246,100.

Sales rose in three regions: Northeast, up 42%; West, up 8.3%; and the Midwest, up 5.8%. Sales fell 2.4% in the South.

Economic Analysis: Sales did nudge-up slightly in April 2008, but the key stats remains the large, 10.6-month supply of unsold new homes and the 42% decline in new home sales compared to a year ago. A normal, healthy market has a 3-4 month supply of new homes for sale, and that fact, combined with the large decline in year-over-year sales, suggests a market with scant demand. Investors / traders should also ignore the one-month rise in the median sales price: a trend takes at least 3-4 months to form, and the higher one-month median price jump could simply reflect a large number of lower-priced homes taken off the market, or not sold.

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Filed under: Forecasts, Industry, Law, Commodities, Oil, Recession

If the nation’s oil companies are having trouble getting more crude out of existing fields, perhaps the solution is to put rigs in Yellowstone National Park.

“Green” environmentalists may be in for bad days. According to The Wall Street Journal, “Increasing U.S. oil production would require overturning decades-old moratoriums that limit offshore drilling and accelerating leasing of federal lands.” It may come down to whether eagles and black bears mind oil exploration in the regions where they live.

Forest animals might not care, and that could be the crux of the argument. Even though oil spills are not unheard of, they’ve become exceedingly rare. Bringing out oil from protected land may have very tiny environmental risk.

In some ways, opening restricted land may be the only way to save lower class and some middle class Americans from gas and oil prices so high that their spending ability is being crushed.

What black bear would want to see that happen?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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