Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer experience, Economic data, Commodities, Oil, Housing, Recession

Alan Greenspan has been traveling overseas too much promoting his book. Today he said there is over a 50% chance of a recession in the U.S. According to Reuters, the former Fed chairman said “I would not describe the situation we are in as a recession, although the chances that we’ll have one are more than 50 percent.”

If Mr. Greenspan was in the U.S. more often he might notice that many people can no longer afford both gas and food due to inflation in commodities prices. That alone has curtailed spending among many members of the lower and middle classes.

The drop-off in retail sales devils major retailers. Three U.S. airlines have already filed Chapter 11, and that number may well rise. Auto sales were off over 14% at both of the larger American car companies.

Many stocks in major U.S. firms are near 52-week lows and non-farm payrolls dropped sharply according to the most recent report. Financial institutions have cut tens of thousands of jobs, and that may get worse.

Otherwise, everything is fine.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, April 6th, 2008 at 4:09 pm and is filed under Real Estate and Housing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.