Filed under: Market matters, Money and Finance This day, Technical Analysis, Commodities
The price of gold and other precious metals has been rallying sharply, helped by a falling dollar, worries about rising inflation and concerns over the health of the global financial system. So far this year, the yellow metal is up around 20%.
Gold mining shares have not fared as well. They have been held back by broad-based weakness in equity markets and the prospect that higher costs for energy and other commodities could cut into those companies’ operating profits.
Since the value of the ratio of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) to the streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF (AMEX: GLD) hit a peak on October 31st, the yellow metal has outpaced the basket of mining shares by almost 20 percentage points.
Now, though, reports advocate that at least some of the buying in gold and other commodities has been fueled by leveraged speculators, who might find financing harder to come by in the current environment.
With the technical picture signaling that the shares are starting to hold their own versus the metal, those who want to maintain their exposure to gold with a bit less risk or who are looking for the share-commodity ratio to bounce back care about it has in the past might want to consider buying GDX and selling gold (or its ETF equivalent, GLD).
Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.
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